Game Over for Wall Street

Game is over for Wall Street. It is not because that a few financial firms were wiped out or the Dow was down several hundred points for the past week. It is the changes in the financial market structure and the finance’s role in the economy that seal off the ill fate of the Wall [...]

From Lehman to Lemon

On this harvest moon day of 2008, Lehman Brothers becomes something really similar to today’s moon, in color and in shape but on a smaller scale—a lemon. After 158 years’ existence on Wall Street, Lehman now officially buried its name in the credit market carnage and becomes the latest sacrificial lamp in the name of [...]

How Do Cities Rise and Fall

Great cities are much fewer than the ordinary ones around the world. And many once-glorious cities have faded away from the scene as times changes. Still, some cities have survived and thrived till to this day. Economists are fascinated with what shapes up the city’s fate and how its future is determined by what factors. [...]

A Dead Engine Needs No More Oil

The Fed continued to intervene in the money market with the expanded term auction program. It is designed to encourage banks to lend short term funds to each other, so that liquidity of funds in the financial markets can be created to allow for more commercial loans by the banks to the businesses in general.
This [...]

前市不忘后市之师

以下三张图分别是NASDAQ 100（ 从99年到2001年末）， NASDAQ （ 从98年到2002年末），和沪市从05年至今的走势。牛市和熊市的轨迹都写在了这些图上。
至少它们的崛起从图上看来非常相似。 NASDAQ 上升的速度比沪市更快, 但沪市上升的幅度比NASDAQ 更大。
下跌过程： NASDAQ 的跌幅最高达到80%左右。 沪市到目前为止 约40%。 不过，沪市下跌的”路线图”与NASDAQ 的下跌也是极其相似的–至少到目前为止。
我认为沪市面临很多不确定因素，继续下跌的可能性极大。 虽然3300-3500点是一个支撑区，市场会在这一区域反复或反弹，但是再次试探或跌穿3300点的可能性很大。如果相信市场的对称性的话，沪市的上升轨迹就是其下降的镜像。 至少近期市场会找到通向3000点的”路径”。
我想，再跌20% — 3000点以下，我们可以开始准备祭悼熊市的终结。
根据？ 就一点：市场对称性。

China’s Economic Growth: the Real One

It is not clear what are the exact impacts the snow storm brought to China’s economy in the long term. I expect that it has no fundamental impact at all in long term; although in short term, it will assert downward pressure to consumer spending and upward pressure to general price level.

It is unclear that [...]

Banks Lost Their Magic

News today that Goldman Sachs is going to shed US$1.33 billion from its stock holdings for the quarter ending Feb 29, 2008. Goldman Sachs, the crown jewel of the Wall Street has successfully foreseen the subprime debt debacle and handsomely profited from the debt crisis. The only investment bank that has not been hit by [...]

The Stock Market: I Shall Return (Again)

This article “Burned but Bullish at Citigroup“, which is on tomorrow’s New York Times, touches some similar ideas as in my previous blog. The chief economist of Citigroup takes the same example of how the market staged the comeback after a precipitous drop in 2001 and 2002. Not sure how many people will agree with [...]

The Stock Market: I Shall Return

In case you wonder what is going on in the stock market lately, you would find plenty of reasons why it has been in a free fall: the deflated housing market, banks’ outlandish losses, the waning consumer spending, and the “R” word that started to hit every investor’s mind-whether it is already happening or not.
One [...]

The way out of this mess

The financial crisis in the US has spread out to the other sectors of the economy. The collateral damage of this crisis is, inevitably, the consumer spending contraction. The fallout of consumer spending (another shoe drop?) will have a wider impact on the economic slowdown than the financial crisis does.
The Federal Reserve has to lower [...]