Some Truth about Money

A lot of times the best pieces of commentary or analysis appear at the end of each year on newspapers or magazines. Those are the times when people (wise people) spend some time to look back and reckon what has happened for what reason…
The last piece of Jonathan Clements’, a Wall Street Journal columnist—his parting [...]

Another Chapter about the Fed

 
I have been scratching my head trying to figure out what has happened to the financial market and what are the implications of the Federal Reserve’s actions since the housing market in the US started to crack and a chain of derivatives of debt instruments were collapsed. It is probably one of the best real-life [...]

前市不忘后市之师

以下三张图分别是NASDAQ 100（ 从99年到2001年末）， NASDAQ （ 从98年到2002年末），和沪市从05年至今的走势。牛市和熊市的轨迹都写在了这些图上。
至少它们的崛起从图上看来非常相似。 NASDAQ 上升的速度比沪市更快, 但沪市上升的幅度比NASDAQ 更大。
下跌过程： NASDAQ 的跌幅最高达到80%左右。 沪市到目前为止 约40%。 不过，沪市下跌的”路线图”与NASDAQ 的下跌也是极其相似的–至少到目前为止。
我认为沪市面临很多不确定因素，继续下跌的可能性极大。 虽然3300-3500点是一个支撑区，市场会在这一区域反复或反弹，但是再次试探或跌穿3300点的可能性很大。如果相信市场的对称性的话，沪市的上升轨迹就是其下降的镜像。 至少近期市场会找到通向3000点的”路径”。
我想，再跌20% — 3000点以下，我们可以开始准备祭悼熊市的终结。
根据？ 就一点：市场对称性。

Creative Thinking and Disastrous Ideas

Just caught this :

Paul Krugman said he had no clue about what to do with the financial crisis the US.. If one of the best economists says he has no solution to a financial crisis, it tells things are quite serious and can get really ugly. Below is what he said on the New York [...]

Will the Chinese Pull the Plug?

 
A blog entry by Roubini about the upcoming collapse of the US economy has caught a lot of attention—being translated into Chinese and discussed on the Financial Times as well (see America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns). The blog listed 12 steps leading to the collapse the US economy. They are, more or [...]

中国的牛市不如猪市

昨天我一直关心的2008 年1月中国居民物价上涨数据出台了。消费价格总水平同比比2007年1月上涨了7.1%， 属意料之中。不过， 让我吃惊不已的是猪肉的价格在一年之间上涨了58.8%。

当我看到这一数字的时候，58.8%已经不是一个单纯的数字了，我眼前看到的仿佛就是一头在不断发，发，发–的猪！在猪年间身价飙升一半有余！

“Holy Cow”!我不禁惊讶道！这句英语的意思是”神牛”（源于印度教对牛的崇拜）。 不对不对， 我马上想到：这句话在中国应改叫”Holy Pig”–神猪！谢国忠讲过， 有人告诉他说， “香港起台风的时候，猪是能飞上天的.”这句话我还将信将疑， 不过我对猪的潜力不再小看了。特别是长在中国的猪。

都说中国的股市牛，我算了一下，2007年初沪市在3000点，今天在4500点上下，大概一年增长50%， 猪肉价格同期上涨了58.8%， 你说，这牛市能比上猪市吗？ 而且这猪市是一路上扬，可没有什么修正，暴跌的事儿。

那么， 买股票真是不如买猪肉了。而且，猪肉的涨幅一定要比CPI高。这样，即使你跑不过刘翔，也一定能跑赢CPI 啦！

最后还想说一句，本人也是属猪， 希望你不要跑输我啦！

 

 

 

No need of Economics 101, Mr. (or Mrs.) President

The other day I heard Senator John McCain said that he really didn’t know much economics or how the economy is running. My first reaction was that–he was an honest man! I don’t think that he really knows nothing about the economy, rather, he is humble enough to acknowledge he knows very little about how [...]

China’s Economic Growth: the Real One

It is not clear what are the exact impacts the snow storm brought to China’s economy in the long term. I expect that it has no fundamental impact at all in long term; although in short term, it will assert downward pressure to consumer spending and upward pressure to general price level.

It is unclear that [...]

Who is Saying What about the Fed Rate Cut?

I have been reading comments on the Federal Reserve’s 75 bps emergency rate cut on Jan 21st. Some people agreed with the Fed’s move, saying it is the right move to avert the deterioration of economic slowdown. Some people do not think that the Fed’s rate cut is appropriate, believing it is a panic reaction [...]

George Soros in the Making

A quick search on news showed nothing particular interesting today except the market collapsed around the globe. And nothing about the market drop is really new except one piece saying George Soros saying the market is destined for the trouble in the coming days and weeks. I find it interesting as this man experienced a [...]