老师不让写一句话一段的文章, 忘记 是为什么了.

可能是难度 太大了? 一句话一段的文章是很难拿捏 的.

西塞山前白鹭飞，桃花流水鳜鱼肥。

青箬笠，绿蓑衣，斜风细雨不须归。

–张志和的《渔歌子》, 唐人写的.

今人的也有–《成全了自己的碧海蓝天》, 很长,得读几个小时, 不过写得很不错.

老师说的不见得都对. 一句话一段的文章也是 可以写的.

误导.

冰壶（curling），在世界上并不是一项很普及的体育运动， 不过 在冰雪运动的王国加拿大来说是非常流行的。至今，加拿大已经是获得这个项目世界冠军最多次的国家。现在，正在加拿大举行女子冰壶世锦赛，名不见经传的中国女队已经两次战胜东道主加拿大队，进入了明天的决赛， 在此间引起了轰动。他们将和加拿大和日本队之间的胜者争夺冠军。

这项体育运动在两三年前对我来说还是很陌生的。不过 自从来到加拿大和看过意大利的都灵冬奥会后，我慢慢发现这是一项非常引人入胜的运动。因为，它需要的不仅是身体技术和技能， 更需要策略和战术的考量。 这种运动没有激烈对抗但是场上的战况会随着每一个冰壶的掷出而发生变化， 所以胜负的偶然性很大， 很揪人心 。而且这是一项动脑子的运动， 通过电视转播， 观众可以同步听到运动员在场上相互讨论如何处理策略问题，也可以了解运动员掷每个冰壶的意图，所以也拉近了运动员与观众的距离。

这次世锦赛， 中国队， 日本队的表现抢眼， 击败了很多欧洲强队。虽然我也没有完整地看过多少场比赛， 但是这个周末有中国队参加的决赛， 是不能错过的。 当美女，运动，智慧融会到洁白的冰面上的一颗颗小冰壶上，它的吸引力会超出你的想象！

昨天我一直关心的2008 年1月中国居民物价上涨数据出台了。消费价格总水平同比比2007年1月上涨了7.1%， 属意料之中。不过， 让我吃惊不已的是猪肉的价格在一年之间上涨了58.8%。

当我看到这一数字的时候，58.8%已经不是一个单纯的数字了，我眼前看到的仿佛就是一头在不断发，发，发–的猪！在猪年间身价飙升一半有余！

“Holy Cow”!我不禁惊讶道！这句英语的意思是”神牛”（源于印度教对牛的崇拜）。 不对不对， 我马上想到：这句话在中国应改叫”Holy Pig”–神猪！谢国忠讲过， 有人告诉他说， “香港起台风的时候，猪是能飞上天的.”这句话我还将信将疑， 不过我对猪的潜力不再小看了。特别是长在中国的猪。

都说中国的股市牛，我算了一下，2007年初沪市在3000点，今天在4500点上下，大概一年增长50%， 猪肉价格同期上涨了58.8%， 你说，这牛市能比上猪市吗？ 而且这猪市是一路上扬，可没有什么修正，暴跌的事儿。

那么， 买股票真是不如买猪肉了。而且，猪肉的涨幅一定要比CPI高。这样，即使你跑不过刘翔，也一定能跑赢CPI 啦！

最后还想说一句，本人也是属猪， 希望你不要跑输我啦！

以下这篇文章是从 The Economist上看到的。有人已经将它翻译成中文。 它倒是给中国人提了个醒: 如果台湾真有一天独立了， 这些故宫宝物应该不费一枪一炮原物归还给大陆吧？ 不然， 这不是明抢吗？

据说， 毛主席当年知道林彪叛逃， 曾说道：”天要下雨，娘要婚嫁人， 随她去吧!” 台湾要独立，人可以走，东西得留下。

http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=9219

Taiwan’s National Palace Museum
台湾国家故宫博物馆

http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=9219

Treasure island
宝岛
Feb 14th 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

Taiwan’s National Palace Museum

台湾国立故宫博物院

Treasure island

宝岛

Feb 14th 2008 | TAIPEI

From The Economist print edition

Beauty is truth, truth beauty. But make sure the law is watertight
美即是真，真即是美。但得确保法律滴水不漏

IT IS the finest collection of imperial Chinese art anywhere. But Taipei’s National Palace Museum rarely sends its treasures overseas. Indeed the exhibition that opens in Vienna’s Kunsthistorisches Museum on February 26th will be only the fourth big foreign loan it has made since it opened in 1965.
这是世上最精美的中华帝国艺术展览。可是台北国立故宫博物院绝少将其藏品送往海外展出。将于2月26日在奥地利维也纳艺术史博物馆举行的展览，确实仅是台北故宫1965年开馆以来第四次大规模送藏品到海外展览。

Like everything else in Taiwan, the art collection is coloured by the tense relationship with China. The exhibition is possible only because Austria, like America, France and Germany, the three earlier destinations, passed legislation granting exhibits immunity from judicial seizure, to stop China staking a legal claim to them.
艺术品展览也与台湾其他事一样受到两岸紧张关系影响。此次展览之所以能举办，是因为奥地利如同曾举办故宫藏品展览的美、法、德三国一样，通过了展品免受司法没收的法案，这样就可以避免中国从法律上对这些藏品提出所有权要求。

Of the Palace Museum’s 650,000 items, 230,000 come from China’s imperial collection, started in the Song dynasty in the 10th century. Partly as a badge of political legitimacy, and partly to protect the artworks from the advancing Communists, Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang shifted them from China to Taiwan in 1948 and 1949 before retreating there after losing the civil war.
台北故宫65万件藏品中有23万件来自中国皇室藏品，收藏时间始于10世纪的宋朝。内战中失利的蒋介石的国民党败走台湾前于1948年至1949年将这些藏品运往台湾，这样做既是想维系国民党政府的政治合法性，也是为了避免藏品落入势如破竹的共产党人之手。

For nearly 30 years the museum served as a fortress guarding these political symbols from Beijing’s Forbidden City. As democracy took root in Taiwan, however, the museum became a diplomatic tool to help counter Taiwan’s acute isolation. The president’s wife, Wu Shu-chen, made an unusual trip to accompany exhibits to Germany in 2003.
近30年来，台北故宫是保护这些政治标志的堡垒，将它们与北京故宫相隔绝。然而，随着民主在台湾生根发芽，台北故宫成为外交工具，以解台湾被急剧孤立之围。2003年，第一夫人吴淑珍护送藏品到德国展出，此行颇不寻常。

According to Lin Mun-lee, the museum’s director, Japan has lobbied for some 20 years to have a collection appear there, but its parliament has not passed the regulations needed. A loan to Taiwan’s only diplomatic partner in Europe, the Vatican, has likewise not been possible because Italy would not offer artworks immunity from seizure. An official from China’s State Administration of Cultural Heritage suggests that Beijing has never considered reclaiming the objects from Taiwan because “Taiwan is part of China.” The island’s independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party administration has realised that returning the treasures to China is not on, and has tried to use them to its own advantage. But Mr Lin says that, should Taiwan one day be forced to make a choice between its destiny and the treasures, it should be a democratic decision by Taiwan’s people. China, of course, will do all it can to deny them the choice.
国立故宫博物院林曼丽院长介绍说，日本为了让该院藏品在日展出游说了约20年， 但日本国会未能通过所需（展品免受司法没收）法案。该院藏品同样无法到台湾在欧洲唯一的邦交国梵蒂冈展出，因为意大利也不能保证展品免受司法没收。但中国 国家文物局某官员暗示，北京从未考虑向台湾要求收回这些藏品，因为“台湾是中国的一部分”。岛内持台独立场的民进党当局已认识到向中国归还这些藏品行不 通，因此就试着以有利于己的方式利用它们。但林女士（原文有误，林系女性）表示，要是有朝一日台湾被迫在命运和藏品中择其一，那就应该由台湾人民用民主方 式决定。当然，中国将竭尽全力剥夺台湾人选择的权利。

Depending on your focus and definition, today’s Chinese media could be very open and liberal– more than what you expected. Every topic could be brought to discussion these days, except some touchy issues involving domestic politics. In addition, the technologies employed for TV broadcast allow everybody to watch almost any Chinese channels (as well as some foreign networks) from anywhere around the world, as long as there is a broadband Internet connection at a reasonable speed. Without stringent regulations, foreign TV contents have become more readily available through the net to those tech-savvy Chinese in China, although official availability of foreign media is, if not decades, years away.

A little shock came last night as I tuned into Phoenix channel, a Chinese language network partially owned by Murdoch’s News Corp (a very small stake). A Chinese guest analyst said on TV that Mr. Obama was asked to quit the Democratic nomination contest and instead to partner with Hillary Clinton as her running mate. Really? I was quite surprised and quickly dismissed the speculation. It is unlikely to be true at this point.

But on a second thought, I was thinking, if it is true, that person must be a senior advisor of either Clinton or Obama campaign, or something close to that status. Again, unlikely.

No matter whatever happened on the campaign front, I couldn’t care less. My mental capacity of assimilating any more information about the US presidential election probably reached its limit. Hillary, Obama, Huckabee, McCain… enough is enough. (By the way, if you need any up-to-date info. on the US election, look no further than this place: http://www.intrade.com It is straightforward and more accurate than any talking heads’ predictions on TV)

Nonetheless, the campaign generates deep interests and great fanfares in Chinese media, like Phoenix TV or some newspapers. During Chinese New Year holidays, when not much to report, the Chinese media attention switched to the presidential election half way around the world. Reports and analyses on political caucuses and primary campaigns are extensive, deep and unparalleled by any other coverage on political elections in a foreign country.

So much about the campaign coverage.

Then came the second topic of the program, but it is no less mundane. It is about the scandalous pictures of some Hong Kong entertainment celebrities that are leaked to the public via the Internet. In short, these triple X rated pictures roused public frenzies and have been a hot topic in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese media for the past two weeks. Even most politically “correct” media outlets in China have covered this incident, alongside with the coverage of snowstorm. OK, people may need to switch attention from snowstorm to something else… hot and heart pounding, maybe.

Phoenix TV is a high end TV network targeting affluent Chinese audience and holds more liberal views (compared to the authority’s views). Although it has only a limited network coverage in China compared to the ubiquitous presence of the official TV networks, it does offer some more latitude in its reports and editorials than other networks do. As long as it does not touch some political taboos, anything can be brought up and discussed.

I am in a hurry to get my dinner ready, and whatever is said on the rest of that TV program I did not pay much attention to. But I have to say that there are some programs on this network that I really like. Some reporters or news anchors in their programs are able to switch between Chinese and English fluently–I was amazed and watching them in awe.

It is pretty interesting to have a glimpse of the changes the Chinese media has gone through over the years. As for foreign media, audience, viewership, and advertisement revenues become the operating mandate for Chinese media. Censorship aside, the media has gone a long way toward fostering diversity and openness. Nowhere can I find any trace of the straight faced, monotonous, emotionless reports reminiscent of the soviet era.

Some of what they said may be not to my taste, which is fine. It is good to have access to something I like. Yet, it is even better to have than not to have an option of not listening to what I do not like.

现在在网上热炒的港星艳照事件，可能是公众对明星无限好奇心的又一次大释放。这让我想到刚刚看到的《经济学人》（2008。2。2）的一篇书评 (The Secret Cinema). 它的话题使我想到如果人们将自己最秘密的秘密公布于众， 它对我们的社会， 思想， 行为会有什么样的影响？象这本书提及的话题可能在如今已不是什么新鲜的事了。（互联网上有比这更露骨的内容）但是我觉得 这些内容如果公开， 成为公众话题， 或者通过网路传播， 使其成为”公共知识”, 那么它一定 会对我们产生影响，我们的思想，意识通过现今的网络在加速演进,，变化。我相信网络的力量已经超过媒体， 书本，课堂，成为塑造意识形态的重要工具。

附：神秘电影

Book details
Who’s Been Sleeping in Your Head?: The Secret World of Sexual Fantasies
By Brett Kahr
The Economist, Feb 2^nd 2008

304 pages; $28.

书名：《 谁睡在你的脑袋里？性幻想的神秘世界 》
作者： 布赖特。卡尔

由受访的陌生人自爆最不为人知的幻想，即性幻想所编成的书，不大可能是单调无聊的，布赖特。卡尔广泛地对性幻想的简明扼要的心理分析很具吸引力，也预人警示。

把它摊放在办公桌上，正统的同事或上司可能觉得你在读些及不适当的东西。如果你有孩子，那它也不是你会在家中随便摆放的一类书(除非你是头脑极现代派那种）。特别是本书中间的一部分关于各种可能的白日色情梦描述地极尽露骨。包括象这样的句子-”让我们沉浸在典型的乱伦幻想当中吧”。（一些读者会觉得–还是不要吧）

但它并不是全都是让人毛发竖立的东西。有些人会幻想自己和社会名流发生关系，这也许并不让人感到意外。很多人想象和现实的生活伴侣浪漫温柔。但许多接受调查的人表示，喜欢幻想与陌生人或（可能更令人不安地）自己爱的人一起干些为人不齿的事。

不过那些采访案例并不是些下流故事，这些是一个长达五年的漫长的纯学术研究的一部分。卡尔先生，一位位于伦敦的学者和医疗师，联合YouGov, 一家互联网民意调查机构，对英美两国18,000名民众做了一项匿名调查，并进行了132个小时的采访。结论是90%的人有性幻想–大多是些很淫秽的。剩下10%的人则深受羞愧、内疚和压抑的折磨。

卡尔先生的优美文字，充满同情，诙谐和博智，淡化了任何淫秽的意味。他自信地引用拉丁语句和意大利歌剧，极少使用心理分析的知识。拜他所说的”强有力的心理消化道”所赐，当有人向他坦言是靠幻想对毫不疑心的陌生人施以过度性暴力来放松自己时，他也不会惊声尖笑着跑出房子，或打电话报警。他是想研究出为什么这么多人觉得性幻想这么重要。

一个外行人可能会觉得烦庸或天生的怪异促使了幻想。但卡尔将关注的重点放在过去一些难以启齿的经历上。幻想是重述童年经历的一种方式；有时是对虐待或忽视自己的父母的一种报复；有时是对这些记忆的洗刷。一位女士在幼年时被她的母亲从后面袭击，把她的头撞倒玻璃桌上。到了成年，她的幻想是有个无面人从她头上伸下手抚摸她的胸部。

本书的精髓是最后一章：卡尔先生回答了在书的最开始提出的21个问题。这些包括很实际的问题，如性幻想的定义，目的及其盛行程度,以及更饶人的矛盾。一个人应该向他的伴侣坦言性幻想吗？（可能不。）性幻想是关系出现麻烦的征兆吗？（不一定；它可能是个安全阀。）是我们控制性幻想，还是反之？（对大多数人来说，两者均有之。）最后一句：不过，在向您的读书俱乐部推荐本书之前，最好还是三思而后行。

It is not clear what are the exact impacts the snow storm brought to China’s economy in the long term. I expect that it has no fundamental impact at all in long term; although in short term, it will assert downward pressure to consumer spending and upward pressure to general price level.

It is unclear that how the Chinese government will react or adjust the fiscal and monetary policy in light of the damage sustained in South China and much feared economic slowdown. There is a new report from the World Bank lately urging China to stimulate the economy as it is likely to slow down. It is a very easy thing to do for the Chinese government. However, the government is also mindful that the shortage of basic materials, energy, and food products will become more severe if the economy is to be stimulated. That’s the dilemma facing the policymakers in China. To ease money supply or to extend fiscal stimulation will not solve the problem of inflation, and will only make it worse.

Growth – Real Growth

In the long term, there is no way to prop the economy to grow above its potential capacity. In the United State, the long term real growth rate is about 2.5%-3.5% per annum. In China, the growth rate of real GDP has been about 11% for the past two years, and that is not long-term sustainable growth rate. Inflation, imbalance of the economic structure and pockets of assets bubbles are all the consequences of such a high growth rate. It is very much clear that China’s economy, as spectacular as its performance has been, has a long term growth rate higher than that of the developed economies, but not as high as 11%. I think the simple and best proof of this view requires, surprisingly, nothing about economic theory but a large scale snow storm. After a few days of snow, a severe shortage of coal and power started to cripple some areas in South China and when the snow and cold weather lingered on, the problem cascaded into a large scale disaster. The infrastructure and energy capacities are under sever constraint.

Things would not be so severe if it were not for the snow storm. However, sooner or later, the excess brought about by such growth momentum has to be unwound or digested. This could be a painful process that accompanies a periodic slowdown in investments and consumptions, and often times a lot of wastes of production capacities. This process may be not severe with a proper fiscal and monetary policy adjustment, but any delay or denial of such a process will only make the adjustment later on more painful and at a higher cost.

No doubt that any policy adoption has its risks and I don’t think there is a single best or worst policy to choose. It boils down to choice. Every policy has its pros and cons. Careful and dexterous selection of policy tools are perhaps more crucial at this moment than ever. Looking at what Japan has been through, policy mistakes are unfathomable.

However, the policy that will be adopted by the government shall give us a hint of whether the government chooses to tackle the long term problem or to seek a short term fix. We will get a much clearer idea in next month’s national Congress and the government report. The long term problems include unemployment, trade imbalance and structural changes of the economy, while more urgent problems are assets bubbles, inflation, economic shocks and supply shortages of certain products. There are many factors in policy makers’ mind to determine the priority among these issues.

Policies will have impacts on the course of the economy; however, the growth path is not entirely determined by the policies. The economy has its due course–like the long term growth rate, which cannot be swoon too far away from its average and potential.

中国南方大面积持续的大雪给返乡过年的人带来了无穷的烦恼。眼看春节在即，可能有千千万万的人没法及时回家过年了。
对于我这个常年在海外，
很多年没有在中国过春节，
更别说在家过春节的人来说，这可能没有什么。但我深知对于中国人来说，
春节回家团圆过年是何等地重要。 所以说这场雪给我们带来的更多的是烦恼，
不便。
至于灾害性的影响，
其实不是很大。首先这场雪灾带来的死亡人数并不比其他灾害带来的多。，除了一些电网公路受损外，
其他财产损失并不是很多。再有，
就是对生产和消费有一些影响，
特别是在春节将至的时候。我不想多说雪灾对经济的影响，
因为我觉得中国的经济有比雪灾更重要的问题。

今天只谈这雪本身。

据说这场雪是中国南方五十年来不曾有的。这种突发事件属于小几率事件，我们无法预测它的严重性，广度，以及持续时间。但是这种小几率事件往往产生不可估量的效应和影响：象现今的雪灾， 05 年东南亚海啸，1995年神户大地震，这些突如其来的自然灾害，对我们来说是意外的打击，
它在考验人们的应变能力和政府的组织能力。
而象911这样的事件又给国际政治世界格局带来突变。

去年有一本很流行的书《黑天鹅》（black swan) 专门研究我们对小几率事件的认识。
其中有一个论点就是相对于我们对任何事物的研究和预测，其效果与小几率事件给我们带来的影响相比是小的多了。

很大程度上这次灾害是无法避免的。如果这场雪不是在上亿人上路出行的时候发生，
或者这场雪是下在对冰雪有较强对应能力的东北地区，或者这场雪没有延续这么长时间，
这场灾难就会减轻或避免。但是它偏偏就发生在不该发生的时候和地区。

这也许是巧合，
是我们永远无法解释，
预测，
准备的巧合。这个巧合，
这个机率为百分之一，千分之一，万分之一，万万分之一的巧合让我们所适从。

雪会停， 赶快停，让尽可能多的人回家团圆过年。 可是，小几率事件还是会发生的， 在未知的时间和地点。

格林斯潘的回忆录 <<动荡岁月：一个新世界中的历险>>记录了他从一个萨克斯演奏者到商业顾问，经济学家直至美联储主席历时逾半世纪的职业生涯。虽然他不属于任何一届美国政府的行政官员，但是从1970年代初就参与美国经济政策的筹划，并从1987年开始执掌美联储二十年，与历届政府和历任总统打交道，为官时间之长在美国历史上是很少的。读其回忆录可以了解美联储的运行机制， 从一个经济学家的角度理解美国货币政策的制定过程以及他对经济发展的理解和展望。

美联储–联储主席–经济学家

我们知道美国联储负责制定货币政策，其主席被认为是除总统之外最有权力的人物，也是联储中最知名的人物。但是联储却是一个庞大的机构，在全国有12支分行， 雇用几千名经济学家。他们负责观察分析各个地区的经济情况，与企业界，商业界， 学术机构保持密切联系， 随时收集反馈经济运行状况。

作为联储主席，格林斯潘可以随时了解各地的最新经济情势，从下属得到各种他所需要的分析。这些数据和分析往往要比公众得到的要及时，这也使联储对经济形势的判断要比私人机构要全面和准确。 但往往也使其与市场的意见相左。造成市场对联储政策走向的误判。比如， 当下许多机构认为美国经济已经或即将进入经济衰退， 但联储并没有明确肯定这种判断。

作为联储主席，格林斯潘并不需要负责联储的日常工作，这些日常工作由一名常务副主席负责。这就能使他集中精力研究经济问题，并能保证他在每天有一定的”阅读时间”. 所以他在担任主席期间，仍能撰写论文–并不是一些泛泛评论， 而是基于数据的学术论文。数量型经济分析正是他年轻时从事经济研究的起点。由于格林斯潘最初是从行业经济研究做起， 并且对数字有很敏锐的感觉， 这对他日后从事中央银行的工作， 对宏观经济的把握奠定了很好的基础。

格林斯潘除了要悉心了解和判断经济走势，作为联储主席，他十分善于在联储的公开市场委员会（特的成员中建立对经济发展的共识。 格林斯潘也深知联储的一举一动都会对市场产生重要影响， 在他任职期间，联储的”对外声音”，公开市场委员会的成员的意见绝大多数是一致的。这与格林斯潘的工作风格很有关系。这种做法在某种程度上减小了市场对联储政策判断的不确定性，与现任联储主席伯南克讲求公开性，透明度的政策有很大区别。现任联储副主席科恩也证实”大部分时间格林斯潘的判断要比其他成员准确”， 这也许是为什么格林斯潘能够驾驭联储的公开市场委员会的一个重要原因吧。